A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
